After the Apocalypse…

cheatsheet.jpg

A tip of the hat to my friend Dennise for sending this one to me, and another tip of the hat to the folks at Topatoco.com who created this fine technology / science cheat sheet, which would be quite useful in rebuilding modern science and technology if one were suddenly thrown back in time or we all wind up back in the stone age through pure human folly, something I place higher odds on these days…

The Glue Conference

GlueAll.jpgMy partners and I at Foundry Group have been involved with Eric Norlin for the past few years, and he has put on two great Defrag Conferences in Denver over the past two years (the inspiration for which came out of our work on our Implicit Web investment theme), and now we’ve decided to add another one to the mix: The Glue Conference, which will be held on May 12th and 13th in Denver.

The idea for the Glue Conference came out of our work at Foundry Group on our Glue investment theme and brainstorming with Eric about how we could take the basic notion of the web as a platform and dig in at a fairly technical level into the problems, challenges and opportunities that arise when one assumes the web and the cloud as a given and as the fundamental platform going forward.

Glue’s got a great agenda, including keynotes from the likes of Mitch Kapor (Lotus founder), Bob Frankston (VisiCalc creator) and Josh Elman (Facebook platform).

And, as far as conferences go, it is a bargain, only $495 for two days, so go ahead and register here. The Foundry Group partners will be out in force, and Seth and Brad (and I’m sure Jason and I will join in the fun at some point) will even be sitting down to listen to pitches from entrepreneurs during the conference.

Netflix’s 10 Year Sustained Bandwidth is 200 Gigabits Per Second!

Today Netflix announced that they delivered their two billionth DVD, an impressive milestone. This brought to mind something we learned in the early days of Excite, which was to never underestimate the bandwidth of physical storage media sent via UPS, the USPS or FedEx. When we opened our second datacenter circa 1996 (on the east coast in one of AOL’s datacenters) we quickly found out that it was faster, cheaper and more reliable to simply FedEx overnight an archived backup tape copy of our search index to the east coast mirror site than to transfer the files over the internet.

I’ve always thought that Netflix’s business was a brilliant bet that the bandwidth and quality of a rental experience powered by DVDs sent via USPS was going to be cheaper and exceed the capabilities of on-demand via the internet for much longer than people were expecting, and of course this turned out to be true. And now that internet tech is finally catching up to the low tech method of shipping atoms full of bits around the country, I think Netflix has done a brilliant job with their internet strategy and distribution partnerships, which should enable a graceful (and still longer-term than people expect) transition from postal delivery to internet delivery.

So when I saw the announcement of the two billionth DVD delivered, I decided to do a quick and dirty back-of-the-envelope calculation of how much data Netflix has delivered to customers in the roughly 10 years since their subscription service launched. (Apologies in advance to all the sticklers out there who might point out the imprecision of this calculation since I’m using factors of 1,000 instead of 1,024 to measure my gigabytes and petabytes.) Here goes:

A DVD has a max capacity of 4.7 gigabytes. Since Netflix also ships TV shows and the like, which don’t fill a DVD to capacity, let’s assume that the average DVD contains 4 GB of data. So, that means they’ve delivered eight billion gigabytes, or eight million terabytes, or eight thousand petabytes, which boils down to an average of 800 petabytes per year over a ten year period. Multiply that by 8 bits per byte and divide by 31,536,000 seconds per year, and you get 202,942,669,000 bits per second, or a sustained ten-year average bandwidth of 200 gigabits per second.

Of course, that’s an average spread evenly over 10 years, and today’s outgoing bandwidth from Netflix via the USPS is many times higher, given the ramp from zero DVDs shipped in the early years and given the fact that Netflix is now shipping Bluray discs, which hold 50GB vs. the 4.7GB on a traditional DVD. And, finally, given they are actually delivering movies via the net, they are now using actual net bandwidth instead of theoretically derived, USPS-enabled bandwidth, though I’m sure their actual bandwidth consumption is still dwarfed by the discs in the mail.

But still, I was surprised by the 200 Gbps number and had to check my calculations a few times to make sure I was right. And it is conceivable that that means that their theoretical bandwidth today could be in the terabit per second range. Golly.

Direct Mind Access (DMA) Composition Technology

AndyDMA_tilt_520.jpgSo, the best corporate April Fool’s joke I’ve seen today comes from Antares Audio Technologies, makers of the ubiquitous Auto-Tune pitch correcting audio plugin, which is used extensively throughout the recording industry, though some producers and vocalists will deny it. There’s a great article in the New Yorker about the impact Auto-Tune has had on popular music.

Today they announced the upcoming release of Direct Mind Access (DMA) Composition Technology, a faux product that claims to enable composers to “think” their compositions directly into a computer, provided they’ve undergone the requisite cranial implantation of the iLobe USB device.

I’m amused that this is the second fake mind-reading device I’ve encountered in as many days (see my post from this morning for details on the other one). I’m also amused because while these two products are spoofs, there’s clearly a meme around mind-machine interfaces picking up steam out there, which fits quite nicely into Foundry Group’s HCI theme, and is likely influenced by the fact that there are real companies in the market today (including companies like Emotiv, NeuroSky and Foundry Group portfolio company EmSense) building real technology and real products based on EEG technology.

I Need One of These

I’ve written in the past about our Human Computer Interaction (HCI) investment theme at Foundry Group and have mentioned our portfolio companies that fit into that theme: EmSense, Oblong and Smith & Tinker.

Well, pictured above is a delightful faux-advertisement I discovered via Thomas Dolby’s blog. I had the pleasure of meeting Thomas years ago (back in the Beatnik era) and then again around 2006 when he returned to the music world, and spent some time rehearsing for his tour at my friend Heidi Roizen’s place in Atherton. Thomas started blogging a while ago and I’ve been following it with great interest since. He’s moved back to the UK and has been working on a new album, which I can’t wait to hear. He is recording in a studio he built into an old retired boat that is sitting on his property that has a view of the sea, which seems to me a brilliant and delightfully wacky enterprise, and strikes me as a quintessentially English sort of thing to do.

Anyway, this ad was created by the folks at Status Graphite guitars, and it seemed to fit into my fascination with all things related to HCI, even if it is, sadly, not yet a real piece of gear. It is now on my fantasy product wish list.

Faces in iPhoto

I’ve been playing around with the face recognition feature in the newest version of iPhoto, and I’m pretty impressed with how well it works. And with how well it fails. I went through the process of confirming/teaching iPhoto to recognize me on photos where it had assigned a high probability that a photo was me, but needed my confirmation to be sure.

I know most face recognition systems start with identifying the size and shape of and spatial relationship among eyes, nose, mouth, etc. What I found to be interesting was the false positives the system delivered. When a picture it thought was me wasn’t me, probably 75% of the time it was an immediate family member: one of my parents, one of my brothers or my son. So clearly there is some amount of facial geometry that members of my biological family share. I wonder if other iPhoto users out there have noticed this? Hmm, maybe iPhoto could conceivably be used as a poor-man’s paternity test, or it might lead someone to discover they were adopted…

What was also interesting was that for the remaining false-positive identifications of me in my photo library, most of the rest were confined to four of my closest male friends: Sam Chambers, Scott Derringer, Martin Reinfried and Jason Mendelson. I’m not sure what to make of that. Are we friends because we look like one another in some subtle way that isn’t obvious to me? Or is it just statistically-likely noise since I have relatively more photos of them in my collection than other folks who appear from time to time?

Paul’s Boutique is Twenty

Today, the Beastie Boys released the 20th anniversary remastered edition of one of their classic albums, Paul’s Boutique. And they released it direct-to-fan on their own website, using technology created by Foundry Group portfolio company Topspin Media.

Even better, in addition to making high quality mp3s available for download, the Beastie Boys are offering several different bundles of exclusive you-won’t-find-it-on-iTunes content and merchandise, including CDs and vinyl, posters, t-shirts, downloadable DVD-quality videos and lossless digital formats.

Topspin’s CEO Ian Rogers’ life has been intertwined with the Beastie Boys for decades, and he’s got a great story to share about how Paul’s Boutique literally changed the course of his life.

While I was in high school I was still busy listening to heavy metal (think Iron Maiden and Judas Priest), which became my gateway into Deep Purple, Led Zeppelin and classic rock. So at the time, I wasn’t that hip to the Beastie Boys, other than knowing they were the crazy guys who sang “Fight for your Right to Party”.

Happily, my ears opened (way) up over the years, and I appreciate great music from a wide range of genres. I’m really digging re-familiarizing myself with Paul’s Boutique, as well as the Beastie Boys albums that really hooked me back in the day, The In Sound from Way Out and Hello Nasty. The track “Putting Shame in Your Game” on Hello Nasty contains one of my favorite lyrics of all time:

I am the king of boggle, there is none higher

I gets eleven points for the word ‘quagmire’

Perhaps this is because I’ve always been a word game nut and obsessively/automatically make anagrams of every word I see. Or because I once co-wrote a Boggle-solving program in LISP while in college. And now, in a case of life-comes-full-circle, I can get my word game fix playing Scramble on Foundry Group portfolio company Zynga’s Facebook app. Hmm, maybe the Beasties will challenge me to a game…

Meme du Jour: 25 Random Things About Me

While normally I avoid participating in chain-letter type things, for some reason this one caught my imagination when it showed up in my Facebook news feed this morning. It is spreading like an extremely infectious disease on Facebook, and I’ve been amused and surprised about the things I’m learning about friends of mine, so I decided to be a vector in the epidemic. I’d also love to find out who patient zero is, though that might be hard to determine. Anyway, I published this on Facebook originally, but for those non-Facebook users among you, I am re-publishing it here on my blog.

  1. I spent a summer working on an assembly line in Munich building 3-Series BMWs.
  2. I have played guitar onstage at The Fillmore  in San Francisco and the Cabo Wabo in Cabo San Lucas.
  3. My wife almost bailed on our first date after she found out I was taking the Concorde to London with a buddy – she thought it was a ridiculous expenditure. Luckily, I got to fly supersonic (while it was still possible on commercial airlines) AND marry her.
  4. I was a slugger (batted clean-up) on my little league baseball team for several years running.
  5. I was born in Wiesbaden, Germany.
  6. One summer, I was a roadie for the Colorado Springs Symphony.
  7. Years ago, I saved a Super Shuttle van full of people on the way to the airport (including myself) from rolling into the tracks of an oncoming SF Muni train.
  8. I once served Rosa Parks dinner. Yes, that Rosa Parks.
  9. A band I was in performed Stevie Wonder’s Superstition with Thomas Dolby sitting in on keyboards.
  10. I think Golden Grahams is the best cereal ever. Even when those delectable grahams scratch the roof of my mouth.
  11. If there’s a chocolate chip cookie within 5 feet of me, I will eat it, no matter what. This has become a problem as my metabolism has slowed with age.
  12. I am by no means an athlete, but I’m a halfway decent skier and racquetball player.
  13. I stole two Herman Miller office chairs from Oracle in 1993. Sorry Larry.
  14. I played the trumpet for seven years.
  15. I’ve only broken two bones in my life: my pinky (left hand) and my toe (right foot). Both stupidly.
  16. I rear-ended two vehicles (one was parked, both while in the snow) within a few months of getting my driver’s license at age 16. Haven’t had an accident since.
  17. I attended the 1995 New Year’s Eve Phish show at Madison Square Garden. At one point, the band began implanting a device in my brain in order to control me, which was very alarming, given I had previously thought they were a force for good. Or maybe it was the acid.
  18. The last time I cared about professional sports was when the Redskins won the Superbowl back in the Joe Gibbs, Joe Theisman, Art Monk and John Riggins era.
  19. I’ve won two things in my life in raffles/drawings: a stuffed animal named Filbert T. Squirrel from my savings and loan when I was eight years old and opened an account, and, two years ago, a Toshiba HD DVD player after visiting a booth at CES. I miss the squirrel.
  20. I was once briefly engaged to another woman before meeting and marrying my wife (she called it off, I’m the lucky one).
  21. The best song lyric I’ve yet written rhymes “Don Quixote” with “booty”.
  22. The only time I was ever grounded was in seventh grade when I threw a water balloon at a passing delivery truck and it shattered the side view mirror. I fled from the scene and was later picked up by the police and had to be driven home though my neighborhood in the backseat of the cruiser. This happened while I was supposed to be babysitting my little brother.
  23. I’ve never been in a fist-fight.
  24. My favorite band of all time is Steely Dan.
  25. I’ve probably seen Trading Places more times than any other movie, with the possible exception of the original version (the Gene Wilder one, not the Johnny Depp one) of Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory.

Go ahead, publish your own list too. You know you want to.

FAS 157 Blows

File the newly enacted FAS 157 under “stupid accounting tricks”. In addition to making investments and representing Foundry Group on the boards of companies we’ve invested in, my partner Jason Mendelson also runs our back office and is responsible for overseeing our audits and financial reporting to our investors. Jason is knee-deep in audit season right now, and he has a great and detailed rant up at Venture Beat about the stupidity of FAS 157.

FAS 157 is theoretically designed to make the valuation of our portfolio more transparent to our investors by requiring us to value our investments at “fair market value”. Sounds like motherhood and apple pie, right? Who could have a problem with this? Well it turns out that valuing early stage private companies like the ones we invest in is more art than science and valuations are open to interpretation (and discretion), thus opening the whole system to valuation related liability and false comfort from false precision. In the good old days of VC, one basically (with a few exceptions) set the valuation of a company to the price of the last round of financing. While there were situations in which this could produce misleading valuations (particularly when the market was going down), it worked pretty well and in my opinion, and didn’t create busy work that leads false precision around company valuations.

While FAS157 arguably makes sense when valuing public companies (and perhaps formerly public companies that were taken private and have the scale for public market comps to make sense), for the early stage venture world, it creates a process that wastes resources and money and helps no one but the accounting firms — and perhaps law firms down the line when valuation lawsuits start inevitably springing up.

I am constantly amazed by the the creativity and initiative the accounting industry has shown in the wake of scandals like Enron and Worldcom. While they were complicit in these frauds, they somehow came out the other side as beneficiaries when laws like Sarbanes-Oxley and rules like 409A were enacted, essentially creating entirely new lines of business and mandatory employment for themselves. And now they’ve come up with FAS 157, finding yet another way to bill ever more hours to produce an end result that has little meaning and helps no one. At least not in my corner of the universe, the early-stage VC world.

CES 2009 and News from Sling Media

I made my annual pilgrimage to Vegas last week for CES 2009. While the CEA claimed only an 8% decrease in attendance this year at the opening of the show, I’m thinking they came up with a non-obvious means of measurement to whitewash what must have been a much bigger drop in attendance — perhaps they measured sign-ups instead of how many people actually showed up, for instance. Given how much less crowded it felt there — in previous years, taxi lines at the major hotels were at least 30 – 45 minutes long, and it was difficult to get a dinner reservation — I’m thinking the attendance drop had to be much bigger than 8%. And some articles out today peg the decline in attendance at 23%. Bad for the show and a troubling sign of the times, to be sure, but it sure made the overall experience as an attendee much nicer.

Several of my partners attended this year as well and we just posted some of our observations about the event over on the Foundry Group blog. One thing we didn’t mention on that blog, probably because we are all smitten with the iPhone, was Palm’s announcement of the new Palm Pre. I have to say, it looks pretty damn intriguing to me. My wife still uses her Sidekick, but wants a new phone, yet can’t get her head around using the iPhone’s virtual keyboard, so I may suggest that she become our household’s Palm Pre guinea pig. The Pre claims some great features: true multi-tasking and multi-service contact and event sync (as well as the real keyboard and cut and paste) plus an app store all sound pretty good to me. Palm did a great job of commanding media attention at CES this year, partly because the Pre is a hail-mary pass for the company. And I have to say, based on how the ball looks in the air right now, it is conceivable the wide receiver might actually catch the pigskin in the end zone. Apple’s introduction of the iPhone has forever changed the smartphone market by breaking the carriers’ hegemony over the software stack and has caused everyone in the mobile market to raise their game. Consumers benefit, as will app developers who will have several viable platforms to develop to. Exciting times.

Finally, Sling Media had some interesting product announcements. During MacWorld they demoed the SlingPlayer for the iPhone (hooray) and they also showed the first EchoStar DVR with an integrated Slingbox. This product is the first of (hopefully Many) fruits of the vision of the 2007 merger of EchoStar and Sling Media. The Slingbox inside this new DVR has access to one of the multiple internal tuners, so a remote viewer watching via a SlingPlayer or SlingCatcher will no longer be commandeering what’s on in the living room. If they added a bluray player and access to online video sources, this would be the ultimate STB, and might be enough to cause me to switch from Comcast to DISH.

And as a final note, one thing that wasn’t announced until after CES, is that Sling’s co-founders Blake and Jason Krikorian as well as executives Jason Hirschorn and Ben White are leaving EchoStar and handing the reigns over to the (very) capable COO John Gilmore. I know that Blake, Jason, Jason and Ben are planning to take some well-deserved time off, and I wish them the best of luck in the future. Gents, it was an honor and a pleasure to work with you guys, and I sincerely hope we can work together again someday…